Our track record
Every number here comes from real, settled single bets — picked before kickoff and judged on the final result. We publish all of it, wins and losses. How the model works →
break-even 62.4%
net $-83.90
We are still proving this edge
We only call a strategy "proven" once the 95% Wilson lower bound on win rate (46.8%) clears break-even (62.4%) over a large enough sample. Status: Wilson LB(WR) 46.8% does not clear break-even 62.4%. Until then we hold automated stakes flat and keep building the record in public.
Performance by market
| Market | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | Wilson LB | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 18 | 44.4% | 1.91 | 24.6% / 52.3% | Building track record |
| Goals O/U | 2 | 100.0% | 1.93 | 34.2% / 51.8% | Building track record |
| Both teams to score | 3 | 0.0% | 2.18 | 0.0% / 45.8% | Building track record |
| Double chance | 49 | 65.3% | 1.44 | 51.3% / 69.5% | Building track record |
Performance by side
| Side | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom or Draw | 3 | 33.3% | 1.46 | -59.0% | 6.1% |
| Atlético Ottawa or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.77 | -23.5% | 9.5% |
| BTTS No | 2 | 0.0% | 2.30 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Ham-Kam or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.55 | -32.0% | 9.5% |
| Inter Miami or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.39 | +38.5% | 34.2% |
| Colorado Rapids or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.29 | +28.5% | 34.2% |
| Vancouver FC or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.39 | +39.0% | 34.2% |
| New York City FC or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.44 | -26.5% | 9.5% |
| Brann or Draw | 2 | 50.0% | 1.29 | -34.0% | 9.5% |
| Nashville SC or Draw | 2 | 100.0% | 1.51 | +51.0% | 34.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.76 | +76.0% | 20.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.10 | +110.0% | 20.7% |
| CF Montreal or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.45 | +45.0% | 20.7% |
| Kristiansund BK or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.67 | +67.0% | 20.7% |
| Lillestrom | 1 | 100.0% | 1.74 | +74.0% | 20.7% |
| Start or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.67 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| BTTS Yes | 1 | 0.0% | 1.95 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.50 | +50.0% | 20.7% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1 | 0.0% | 1.85 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.30 | +30.0% | 20.7% |
| Falkirk or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.33 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 1 | 0.0% | 2.06 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Inter Miami | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Cincinnati or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.35 | +35.0% | 20.7% |
| Sandefjord or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.36 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 0.0% | 2.12 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 100.0% | 1.96 | +96.0% | 20.7% |
| FC Tokyo or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.39 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Viking | 1 | 100.0% | 1.43 | +43.0% | 20.7% |
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.07 | +7.0% | 20.7% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0.0% | 1.24 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| New England Revolution or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.47 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| V-varen Nagasaki or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.57 | +57.0% | 20.7% |
| Motherwell or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.27 | +27.0% | 20.7% |
| Motherwell | 1 | 0.0% | 1.81 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Heerenveen or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.72 | +72.0% | 20.7% |
| GIL Vicente | 1 | 100.0% | 2.02 | +102.0% | 20.7% |
| GIL Vicente or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.28 | +28.0% | 20.7% |
| Telstar or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.45 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Vancouver FC | 1 | 0.0% | 1.65 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Gamba Osaka or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.48 | +48.0% | 20.7% |
| Kashima | 1 | 100.0% | 1.80 | +80.0% | 20.7% |
| Vissel Kobe | 1 | 0.0% | 2.31 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Reading or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.70 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Plymouth | 1 | 0.0% | 2.35 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Mansfield Town or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.33 | +33.0% | 20.7% |
| Crewe or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +52.0% | 20.7% |
| Mansfield Town | 1 | 100.0% | 2.13 | +113.0% | 20.7% |
| Huddersfield | 1 | 100.0% | 1.68 | +68.0% | 20.7% |
| Huddersfield or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.19 | +19.0% | 20.7% |
| Orlando City SC or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.45 | +45.0% | 20.7% |
| Charlotte or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.42 | +42.0% | 20.7% |
| Southampton or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.37 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Burgos or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.40 | +40.0% | 20.7% |
| Atlanta United FC or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.37 | +37.0% | 20.7% |
| Utrecht or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.62 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Southampton | 1 | 0.0% | 2.15 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 1 | 100.0% | 2.39 | +139.0% | 20.7% |
| Forge or Draw | 1 | 100.0% | 1.21 | +21.0% | 20.7% |
| DC United or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.50 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles FC or Draw | 1 | 0.0% | 1.53 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
Performance by odds band
| Odds band | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0–2.5 | 72 | 58.3% | 1.60 | -11.7% | 46.8% |
Performance by league
| League | Tips | Win rate | Avg odds | ROI | Wilson LB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 21 | 66.7% | 1.50 | -6.3% | 45.4% |
| Eliteserien | 15 | 46.7% | 1.61 | -27.7% | 24.8% |
| Canadian Premier League | 7 | 71.4% | 1.56 | +4.0% | 35.9% |
| J1 League | 7 | 57.1% | 1.80 | -2.7% | 25.0% |
| League One | 6 | 66.7% | 1.73 | +5.5% | 30.0% |
| Eredivisie | 5 | 40.0% | 1.42 | -44.2% | 11.8% |
| Premiership | 4 | 25.0% | 1.62 | -68.3% | 4.6% |
| Primeira Liga | 2 | 100.0% | 1.65 | +65.0% | 34.2% |
| Championship | 2 | 0.0% | 1.76 | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| League Two | 1 | 100.0% | 1.52 | +52.0% | 20.7% |
| Segunda División | 1 | 100.0% | 1.40 | +40.0% | 20.7% |
| La Liga | 1 | 100.0% | 2.39 | +139.0% | 20.7% |
Recent settled tips
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | Colorado Rapids vs Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles FC or Draw | 1.53 | Lost |
| 20 Aug 2026 | DC United vs New England Revolution | DC United or Draw | 1.50 | Lost |
| 20 Aug 2026 | New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC | Nashville SC or Draw | 1.47 | Won |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Forge vs Supra du Quebec | Forge or Draw | 1.21 | Won |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Atlético Ottawa or Draw | 1.53 | Won |
| 17 Aug 2026 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | New York City FC or Draw | 1.40 | Lost |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht or Draw | 1.62 | Lost |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano | Sevilla | 2.39 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City | Colorado Rapids or Draw | 1.17 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati | Orlando City SC or Draw | 1.45 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Watford vs Southampton | Southampton or Draw | 1.37 | Lost |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls | Atlanta United FC or Draw | 1.37 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Charlotte vs Columbus Crew | Charlotte or Draw | 1.42 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Nashville SC vs Inter Miami | Nashville SC or Draw | 1.55 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Burgos vs Cordoba | Burgos or Draw | 1.40 | Won |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Watford vs Southampton | Southampton | 2.15 | Lost |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Mansfield Town vs Doncaster | Mansfield Town or Draw | 1.33 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Plymouth vs Stockport County | Plymouth | 2.35 | Lost |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Huddersfield vs AFC Wimbledon | Huddersfield or Draw | 1.19 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Huddersfield vs AFC Wimbledon | Huddersfield | 1.68 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Crawley Town vs Crewe | Crewe or Draw | 1.52 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Mansfield Town vs Doncaster | Mansfield Town | 2.13 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Reading vs Luton | Reading or Draw | 1.70 | Lost |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Vissel Kobe vs FC Tokyo | Vissel Kobe | 2.31 | Lost |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus | Kashima | 1.80 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Mito Hollyhock vs Gamba Osaka | Gamba Osaka or Draw | 1.48 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Vancouver FC or Draw | 1.21 | Won |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Vancouver FC | 1.65 | Lost |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar or Draw | 1.45 | Lost |
| 09 Aug 2026 | GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave | GIL Vicente or Draw | 1.28 | Won |