How the model works
No black box and no hype. Here is exactly how we pick, how we stake, and how we decide whether the edge is real — with the numbers updated live from our own settled results.
We only call an edge "proven" once the 95% Wilson lower bound on win rate clears break-even over a large enough sample of real, settled single bets. See the full public record.
1. A model of how goals are scored
We use a Dixon-Coles model — the standard model in football analytics. Every team gets a latent attack and defence rating, fitted by time-weighted maximum likelihood on matches that happened before each fixture (never after — that would be cheating). From those ratings we compute the full distribution of scorelines and read off calibrated probabilities for Home / Draw / Away, Over/Under 2.5 goals and Both-Teams-To-Score.
2. We only bet value at fair odds
A pick qualifies only when our probability beats the market price — i.e. the expected value P × odds − 1 is positive — at odds of 2.00 or higher, where the break-even win rate is just 50%. Singles only: one wrong leg never sinks an accumulator.
3. Disciplined, edge-sized stakes
Stakes follow fractional (quarter) Kelly on the model's edge — bigger edge, bigger stake — capped for safety, with an automatic stop-loss after a drawdown. No martingale, no chasing.
4. We only call it "proven" when the maths says so
A hot week proves nothing. We require the 95% Wilson lower bound on our win rate to clear break-even over a large enough sample of settled bets before we ever call a strategy proven — and we publish wins and losses either way. Until then the badge above honestly reads "building track record".
Model diary
Our own honest scorecard over time — the verdict, win rate, statistical floor and calibration on every settled single. This is the model's diary, kept in public.
| Date | Verdict | Settled | Win rate | 95% floor | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jul 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 04 Jul 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 03 Jul 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 02 Jul 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 01 Jul 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 30 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 29 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 28 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 27 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 26 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| 25 Jun 2026 | AMBER | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |